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Podcast: Will the Vancouver real estate market crash in 2023 with BCREA'S Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson

ArticlePast Is Prologue: How Recessions Have Impacted The BC Real Estate Market



  • "Since 1980, Canada has seen four recessions: the 1980-1982 recession triggered by a drop in oil production after the Iranian Revolution; the 1990-1992 recession triggered in part by restrictive monetary policy following the Saddam Hussein-led Iraqi invasion of Kuwait; the 2008-2009 recession triggered by the US housing bubble burst; and the 2020 recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic."

  • "Specific to BC, sales activity in the real estate sector usually begins to fall in the months leading up to recessions. With the 1990 recession, sales began to tail off about four months before the official onset of the recession, while the 2008 recession saw sales peak 15 months prior, according to the BCREA."

  • "With both the 1990 and 2008 recession, home prices in BC plateaued for a year or two before continuing their ascent. With the 2020 recession, prices hit a bottom in May 2020, but then skyrocketed to 24% above pre-pandemic levels by March 2021, and 46% above pre-pandemic levels by Q1 2022."

  • "They also recognize that, historically, home sales make strong recoveries in the year immediately following the onset of a recession. Home sales increased by 31% in 1982, 46% in 1991, 24% in 2009, and 33% in 2021."


Article: Rock Bottom? Peak Rates? Both Buyers and Sellers Try to Time a Market in Flux 



  • "Investors and first-time buyers looking to get into the market are now entering the tricky phase of trying to find the bottom. The problem is, when everybody decides that it’s at the bottom, and starts buying, prices come back up. Industry observers say there’s time to decide, however."

  • “You don’t get these windows of opportunity very often in Vancouver,”

  • "Others will borrow from mom and dad, or negotiate a one or two year fixed rate mortgage to get them through."

  • “For buyers looking for price appreciation and it’s not just a home to live in, you look out past 2023, and think about where the markets are seeing the most population growth,” says Ogmundson. “And where are they benefitting the most from Canada’s targeting of half a million immigrants?”

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